As I told you last week, I hate picking week 1 NFL games.
But, surprisingly, I had a good week.
I went 8-6-2 against the spread and 10-6 straight up for a good start to the 2024 NFL season. The unpredictability of the first week is a challenge. The next section tries to determine how much of Week 1 is true.
Let’s hope I did a good job of finding the fakes here as I look to keep my head above .500 in two weeks.
Week 1 wasn’t that bad.
We hope Week 2 is even better.
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Prime Video)
Josh Allen had an 11-2 record in his career with the Miami Dolphins. That can’t change in this. It’s always tough for the Bills playing in the heat, but this is a night game. Sure, it’s a short week, but the Bills will do enough defensively and Allen will win it back. He continues to manage the Dolphins.
Select: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Main thing+)
This is the second straight road game for the Raiders against a team that is playing its home opener on rest — and it’s on the East Coast. It’s a brutal trip for the Raiders. Their offense struggled against the Chargers and will be here. Crows will not struggle. Lamar Jackson is having a great game.
Select: 28 Ravens, 16 Raiders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Main thing+)
This is a long shot for the Chargers in first place in the season, but the Panthers are bad. They were terrible in their opening game and now they will be without defensive end Derrick Brown, their best defensive player. A really bad offense. Look for the Chargers to win both lines of scrimmage while getting a win on the road.
Select: Chargers 26, Panthers 9
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, chest)
This game features the teams coming off the better of the two games last week. The Cowboys will be playing their home opener after beating the Browns, while the Saints are on the road for the first time. The Dallas defense was suffocating against the Browns and I think that carries over against the Saints. The Cowboys go 2-0, but it’s solid.
Select: Cowboys 23, Saints 18
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, chest)
This is a rematch of a playoff game from last season won by the Lions. The Bucs played it close in that game, but this is a tough job with a second team. However, look for Baker Mayfield to keep them in it again. The Oils will win a close game.
Select: Lions 30, Bucs 27
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, chest)
This will be Malik Willis for the Packers and Jordan Love out. That’s a real challenge for Matt LaFleur and the coaching staff. The Colts hit some big plays on offense against the Texans, but they gave up a lot. The Packers will be around their new quarterback, but it won’t be enough. Colts get road wins.
Select: Colts 23, Packers 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Main thing+)
The Jaguars suffered a fourth quarter loss to the Dolphins, while Cleveland was destroyed at home by Dallas. Deshaun Watson was bad. This is a tough bid to get back on track against a Jaguars defense that slowed Miami down. Look for Jacksonville to get in the win column.
Select: Jaguars 24, Browns 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Main thing+)
Both teams are pleased with their Week 1 victories. The 49ers are pushing around a good Jets defense without Christian McCaffrey. This Minnesota defense impressed New York and I think they will play well here. This is close. Very close, but it gave the Vikings an upset.
Select: Vikings 22, 49ers 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, chest)
This is the first long road trip for the Seahawks, facing a team that upset the Bengals last week. The Patriots defense was good in that game and Seattle has offensive line issues. I think that shows when the Pats win a game down the stretch behind their defense.
Select: Pats 20, Seahawks 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Main thing+)
Both looked awful in the opening week loss. The Jets defense had major issues, while the Titans offense looked terrible. Should Levis be better. The Titans defense was outstanding last week. That defense will keep them in this one and Levis will win it with a rush.
Select: Titans 23, Jets 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, chest)
These two come from losses, which are bad too. The Giants looked like the worse of the two teams, and now they’re out of the running. The Commanders will get big plays from Jayden Daniels, but the Giants will rally here to beat them.
Select: Giants 21, Chiefs 19
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, chest)
The Cardinals blew a big lead at Buffalo last week and now have to face a division rival in the home opener. The Rams play back-to-back road games, which are always tough. They are also listed as criminals. But the Rams have the Cardinals, winning 13 of their last 15. Not this time.
Select: Cardinals 27, Rams 21
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Main thing+)
The Steelers are playing back-to-back road games as their defense won last week’s game against the Falcons. That defense is moving and will make life difficult for Bo Nix, who struggled in the opener. This will be a low-key game with Justin Fields at quarterback for the Steelers. It’s close but Pittsburgh takes it.
Select: Steelers 17, Broncos 16
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Main thing+)
The Bengals were terrible in their opening day loss to the Patriots, but they have been playing well against the Chiefs and Joe Burrow. The offense doesn’t have the fire right now to compete with the Kings. Look for Patrick Mahomes to have fun with his young receivers as the Chiefs go 2-0.
Select: Kings 30, Bengals 20
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, chest)
This will be the first road game for Caleb Williams after a rough start against the Titans. You should be better. The Texans enjoyed a road win, but they gave up big plays to the Colts. The Bears defense will limit CJ. Stroud, but the changes will give the Texans the win.
Select: Texans 23, Bears 13
Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN, chest)
The Eagles will be more rested here after last Friday’s win over Green Bay. The Falcons weren’t alive on offense against the Steelers, while the Eagles were running at will against the Packers. That will continue here. Kirk Cousins will be better than last week, but not what the Falcons need to win.
Select: 27 Eagles, 24 Falcons
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